# Customer marketing holdout calculator

> Compare observed expansion per account between treatment and holdout groups before subtracting program cost. See the formula, change the inputs and save your results.

Source: https://saas-marketing.net/calculators/customer-marketing-roi/
Topic: SaaS Customer Marketing
Type: calculator
Published: 2026-09-17
Last updated: 2026-09-17
Publisher: SaaS Marketing (saas-marketing.net)
License: CC BY 4.0. Quote or republish with attribution and a link to https://saas-marketing.net/calculators/customer-marketing-roi/

## Short answer

Customer marketing holdout uses treatment accounts, holdout accounts, expansion revenue in treatment and the additional inputs below to estimate incremental expansion estimate. Change the example inputs to your own figures. The result is a planning calculation, not an industry benchmark or a prediction.

## Key takeaways

- The main result is incremental expansion estimate; the formula is shown below.
- A causal interpretation requires comparable groups, ideally randomized assignment. Differences in tenure or account size can create apparent lift without a program effect.
- Keep the reporting period, currency and customer cohort consistent across inputs.
- Defaults are an illustrative scenario. A blank, invalid or undefined ratio displays as n/a.

---

Use this tool alongside the [saas customer marketing guide](/saas-customer-marketing/). Compare observed expansion per account between treatment and holdout groups before subtracting program cost.

<Calculator id="customer-marketing-roi" cluster="saas-customer-marketing" />

## Which inputs do you need?

| Input | Example value | What to check |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Treatment accounts | 400 | Use the value from the same reporting period as the other inputs. |
| Holdout accounts | 100 | Use the value from the same reporting period as the other inputs. |
| Expansion revenue in treatment | 30,000 | Use the value from the same reporting period as the other inputs. |
| Expansion revenue in holdout | 5,000 | Use the value from the same reporting period as the other inputs. |
| Gross margin | 80% | Use the value from the same reporting period as the other inputs. |
| Program cost | 5,000 | Use the value from the same reporting period as the other inputs. |

Before entering numbers, choose the unit of analysis. An account, a user and a paying subscription are different objects. Counting users in one field and accounts in another can produce a precise answer to the wrong question. Record the start and end dates beside your source export so another person can reproduce your work.

## What formulas does the calculator use?

### Incremental expansion estimate

```text
lift = control > 0 ? treatmentRevenue - controlRevenue / control * treated : NaN
```

This output is expressed as currency in the same units as the inputs.

### Incremental gross profit

```text
profit = lift * margin / 100
```

This output is expressed as currency in the same units as the inputs.

### Net program ROI

```text
roi = cost > 0 ? (profit - cost) / cost * 100 : NaN
```

This output is expressed as a percentage.

Percent fields use whole percentages: enter 5 for five percent. The formula divides by 100 where a decimal rate is needed. Values in the formulas correspond to the labelled inputs above; earlier outputs can be used by later formulas.

## Worked example

The defaults are a constructed scenario, not results from a named company or survey. With the example inputs above, the calculation produces:

| Output | Example result |
| --- | --- |
| Incremental expansion estimate | 10,000 |
| Incremental gross profit | 8,000 |
| Net program ROI | 60% |

Change one assumption at a time and watch the main result. Then test a conservative case by reducing the expected benefit or increasing the associated cost. If a decision works only at the most optimistic settings, investigate the uncertain input before committing the budget.

## How should you interpret the result?

- A causal interpretation requires comparable groups, ideally randomized assignment. Differences in tenure or account size can create apparent lift without a program effect.

A formula describes the assumptions entered into it. It cannot establish that a channel caused a sale, that historical retention will continue, or that a projected cost is achievable. Compare the output with your own previous cohorts before using a broad market comparison.

For a management review, save the result together with the source date, segment, owner and planned action. Recalculate when the underlying input changes. Keep a separate copy of the original scenario so the team can explain the difference between the plan and the observed outcome.

## Continue the analysis

Use the [metrics guide](/saas-metrics/) to align definitions, browse [all calculators](/calculators/) for adjacent calculations, and keep a [measurement worksheet](/resources/) beside the model. The [pricing hub](/saas-pricing/) and [growth hub](/saas-growth/) cover decisions that often change these inputs.
{/* expanded-practice-2026-09 */}
## Apply customer marketing holdout calculator in a working review

Record the source and unit of every input before using the result. Change one assumption at a time to understand which inputs matter most. Keep outputs that describe money, time and percentages distinct, and preserve undefined cases rather than converting them into plausible-looking zeroes.

For this topic, involve the customer marketing owner and the account’s success or support owner and work from current customer outcome, account context and requested participation. The relevant unit is an eligible customer account at a defined lifecycle moment. State the question the review should resolve before choosing a chart, an asset or a tool. If participants disagree about the unit or scope, resolve that disagreement before combining their evidence.

### Evidence to prepare

Start with the value the customer has actually achieved. Coordinate promotional, educational and service messages so they do not contradict the account’s current situation. Advocacy and expansion should follow appropriate evidence, not simply the passage of time since purchase.

| Review field | What to record |
| --- | --- |
| Topic | Customer marketing holdout calculator |
| Decision | The specific action this explanation should help you choose |
| Working evidence | current customer outcome, account context and requested participation |
| Unit and scope | an eligible customer account at a defined lifecycle moment |
| Responsible people | customer marketing owner and the account’s success or support owner |
| Remaining uncertainty | The missing fact that could change the decision |

### Two situations that can change the interpretation

#### When a customer campaign ignores an open problem

A renewal value review may be appropriate, but an enthusiastic upsell message can be tone-deaf during an unresolved implementation failure.

Use this check: Compare campaign eligibility with current account ownership and support context. Do not hide necessary service updates while pausing promotional outreach.

The [focused diagnostic guide](/guides/customer-campaign-ignores-support-escalation/) provides the correction process and a working evidence sheet.

#### When expansion targets customers who have not adopted

An account with unused purchased capacity may need better onboarding rather than a larger package.

Use this check: Check first-value completion and current operating outcomes before applying expansion criteria. A high contract value does not establish that the customer is ready for more scope.

The [focused diagnostic guide](/guides/expansion-campaign-targets-unadopted-accounts/) provides the correction process and a working evidence sheet.

### Record the decision and the limit

A customer in an unresolved escalation may need a repair plan before an expansion offer. A customer with a verified outcome may be willing to share a story, but that participation should have a clear scope and remain voluntary. Treat the two situations differently.

Keep the conclusion beside the evidence that supports it. Record what the team will do, who owns the next action and which event or date will trigger a review. If the underlying definition, audience or product behavior changes, revisit the conclusion rather than assuming the old result still applies. A clear limit is useful information; it tells the next reader where additional investigation is required.

Use the [complete topic collection](/topics/saas-customer-marketing/) for related methods and the [category field guides](/industries/) when the product's buying situation or implementation requirements change how the method should be applied.

### A reproducible sensitivity exercise

The [customer marketing holdout calculator tool](/calculators/customer-marketing-roi/) provides a related numerical exercise. Its current default inputs are constructed examples, not industry observations. Under those defaults, the output labelled **Incremental expansion estimate** is **10,000** in the tool's displayed units. The table changes one input at a time and leaves the others at their defaults.

| Input changed | Default input | Alternative input | Incremental expansion estimate after change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Treatment accounts | 400 | 480 | 6,000 |
| Holdout accounts | 100 | 120 | 13,333.33 |
| Expansion revenue in treatment | 30,000 | 36,000 | 16,000 |
| Expansion revenue in holdout | 5,000 | 6,000 | 6,000 |
| Gross margin | 80 | 96 | 10,000 |
| Program cost | 5,000 | 6,000 | 10,000 |

The alternative inputs are sensitivity cases, not recommended targets. A result marked not defined means the proposed combination does not satisfy the model or produces an undefined ratio. Keep that state visible. If the output changes sharply after a small input change, investigate the uncertain input before using the model to justify a larger commitment.

Compare the model's scope with the concept on this page. The calculator may represent one particular application rather than every use of the term. Record the reporting period, currency where relevant, and the source of the real values you enter.

## Frequently asked questions

### How does this customer marketing holdout calculator work?

It evaluates the formulas shown on this page in your browser. Compare observed expansion per account between treatment and holdout groups before subtracting program cost. Inputs are not sent to a calculation server.

### Are the default values SaaS industry benchmarks?

No. They are example inputs chosen to demonstrate the calculation. Replace them with your billing, CRM or finance records before making a decision.

### Why does a result show n/a?

The calculation is undefined or an input is outside its allowed range. Check for an empty field, a zero denominator or an impossible percentage before interpreting the result.

### Can I save or share my calculation?

Use Print or save results to create a local PDF with your browser. Review the inputs before sharing and remove confidential customer or company information.